The GDP of an independent Catalonia: Up or Down?

The costs and benefits in purely economic terms have been estimated both by Catalans and the Spanish Ministry for Foreign [sic] Affairs.

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Spain

Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, 2013. Consecuencias económicas de una hipotética independencia de Cataluña. 13 March 2013. http://www.exteriores.gob.es/Portal/es/SalaDePrensa/ElMinisterioInforma/Paginas/Noticias/20130313_MINISTERIO7.aspx


Catalonia

2011
Guinjoan, M. i Cuadras, X., Sense Espanya (Balanç econòmic de la independència), Barcelona, Ed. Pòrtic.

2012
«Dos per dos són mil». Available in English “Two plus two equals one thousand”, by Antràs, P. and Ventura, J.  http://www.wilson.cat/en/comunicats-conjunts/item/215-dos-m%C3%A9s-dos-s%C3%B3n-mil-els-efectes-comercials-de-la-independ%C3%A8ncia.html
Extract (Conclusion 12): "...in the worst-case scenario, sales would drop 18%, and a price drop of 40 + 10 = 50% would be necessary to reallocate the sales. Under such as pessimistic scenario, the fall in Catalan GDP would be 0.18 x 0.5 x 22.5 = 2.0%. For the more plausible price reduction of 25 + 10 = 35%, the fall in Catalan GDP would be 0.18 * 0.35 * 22.5 = 1.4% of the GDP. And these calculations still assume that a boycott against Catalan consumer goods would be almost 10 times (60% vs. 6.5%) higher than the 2005 boycott against Catalan cava. In short, any reasonable scenario indicates that the commercial effects of independence would have a relatively small impact on the Catalan GDP, especially when compared to the 8% fiscal dividend of independence."

2013Guinjoan, M., Cuadras, X i Puig, M., Com Àustria o Dinamarca. La Catalunya possible. Ed. Pòrtic, Barcelona.

2014
Bosch, N. i Espasa, M. 12 arguments econòmics per a la independència, Ed. Pòrtic, Barcelona.

2014
Elisenda Paluzie, Podem! Les claus de la viabilitat econòmica de la Catalunya independent. Rosa dels Vents, Penguin-Random House, Barcelona.

2014
Various authors. Questions and Answers on The Economy of Catalonia. Questions and answers on the economic impact of independence. See Ch. 10, "Independence and Boycott", by Xavier Cuadras Morató and Modest Guinjoan. Col·legi d’Economistes de Catalunya i Profit Editorial, Barcelona.
http://www.coleconomistes.cat/pdf/the.economy.of.catalonia.pdf 
Extract: "The figures presented in this article show that the reduction of exports to Spain would have to be of a catastrophic and, consequently, totally unthinkable magnitude in order for it to be able to cancel out the positive fiscal benefits".

2014

La viabilitat fiscal i financera d’una Catalunya independent.

44 pp.

http://www.gencat.cat/eapc/revistes/RCDP/Documents_interes/RCDP_54/05_18_Viabilitat-fiscal_financera_Catalunya.pdf

2015
IMPACTE ECONÒMIC D'UNA REDUCCIÓ DELS FLUXOS COMERCIALS ENTRE CATALUNYA I LA RESTA DE L'ESTAT. Una aproximació a partir de les Taules Input-Output de Catalunya (2011), by Xavier Cuadras Morató and Modest Guinjoan.
34 pp. 
http://economistes.assemblea.cat/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/boicot.pdf
Extract: ""En el cas de l’exemple mencionat al text la reducció del VAB deguda al boicot seria de l’1,7%, un impacte inferior al 2% que s’havia calculat per a l’any 2005". p. 25. 




See also paper by M. Strubell here: http://www.inv.si/DocDir/Publikacije-PDF/Razprave%20in%20gradivo/RIG%2077/RIG_77_final_2.pdf